A relentless wave of Russian air attacks has pushed Ukraine’s air defenses to the brink, raising urgent questions about Kyiv’s heavy reliance on Western systems to shield its skies amid the fourth year of war.
As peace talks unfold and Kyiv demands an immediate cease-fire, Moscow unleashed its fiercest aerial assault yet, launching more than 900 drones and 90 missiles in a relentless three-day barrage last weekend.
Ukraine managed to shoot down more than 80% of the incoming threats, but the strikes still claimed more than a dozen lives.
Experts warn the country’s ability to withstand these nightly barrages hangs in the balance, especially if Russia continues or intensifies its offensive.
“Ukraine’s air defenses are stretched thin and cannot guarantee protection for all cities against persistent and sophisticated Russian attacks,” military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Russia’s drone and missile attacks have become more complex – and harder to thwart – throughout the war.
Kyiv’s air force says about 40% of drones launched recently are decoys – cheaper dummy craft that mimic attack drones and are designed to exhaust and confuse air defenses.
Russia increasingly sets drones to fly at higher altitudes – above 2,000 meters (6,500 feet) – then dive down onto targets.
“At that altitude, they’re more visible to our radars but unreachable for small arms, heavy machine guns and mobile fire teams,” air force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat told RBK Ukraine.
In addressing the threat, Ukraine is trying to balance pressing the West to deliver new systems with avoiding concern among a war-weary public at home.
“There’s no need to panic,” a Ukrainian military source told AFP.
“We’re using all air defense systems available in Ukraine now, plus helicopters and aircraft. We are fighting somehow,” the source said.
Moscow has the capacity to fire 300 to 500 drones a day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week.
“By scaling up the use of Shaheds, they are forcing us to resort to expensive options,” military analyst Sergiy Zgurets said, referring to Iranian-designed drones packed with explosives to detonate on impact.
“This is a war of attrition that must be based on economic grounds – we must shoot down Shaheds with less sophisticated alternatives,” he said.
Ukraine uses several tools to protect its skies – from advanced Western fighter jets and air defense batteries like the U.S.-made Patriot anti-missile system, to small mobile air defense teams armed with guns.
New technology has also become vital, such as electronic jamming of drones to make them drop from the sky.
Increasingly, interceptors – smaller, cheaper drones that take on enemy drones midair – are being deployed.
“We are already using them. The question now is when we will be able to scale up,” Zelenskyy said of the interceptors.
He too sees the issue as one of economics.
“The question is no longer about production capacity. It is a financial issue,” he told journalists.
Beyond drones, Russia is also deploying superfast ballistic missiles, which are much harder to intercept.
“The biggest vulnerability lies in defending against ballistic missiles,” Gady said.
A midday strike last month on the northeastern city of Sumy killed at least 35 people, while a hit near a children’s playground in Zelenskyy’s home city of Kryvyi Rih left 19 dead, including nine children.
To fend off ballistic missile attacks, Ukraine relies on a small number of Patriot systems.
They are concentrated around Kyiv, leaving other areas more exposed than the relatively better-protected capital.
Gady said the current supply of missiles for the Patriots is “sufficient” given the level of Russian strikes at the moment.
“But it is generally insufficient when compared to Russian ballistic missile production.”
Ukraine also faces potential shortages given delays in U.S. output, according to Zgurets, creating “gaps” in Ukraine’s “fight against enemy hypersonic targets and ballistics.”
Deliveries of other key Western systems are expected over the next 18 months, but uncertainty is high given former President Donald Trump’s criticism of aid for Ukraine.
U.S. packages approved under President Joe Biden are trickling in, but Trump has not announced any fresh support.
“Delivering air defense systems to us means real protection for people – here and now,” Zelenskyy said in a recent call for Western backing.
On a visit to Berlin on Wednesday, he said, “Defending our cities requires constant support with air defense systems.”
