In recent days, there have been reports that U.S. President Donald Trump has cut off contact with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu because he manipulated him and tried to direct U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Under normal circumstances, it could be argued that these reports were fake, but since the news in question was published both in the Israeli Army Radio and in the Israeli Hayom newspaper, which are known to be close to the government and Netanyahu, it must be taken seriously.
Therefore, it would be helpful to analyze this issue in-depth and to make some predictions about how the U.S. policy toward Israel and the Middle East might be shaped, whether the unshakable friendship and alliance between the U.S. and Israel will be damaged and whether Israel's current Gaza and Middle East policy can be sustained without U.S. support.
First of all, let us go back a little bit to take a look at the course of the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu and reveal the extent of the relationship between the two during Trump's first term.
As it will be recalled, during Trump's first term between 2016 and 2020, we followed a period in which the relations between the U.S. and Israel were inexplicably close and Trump was seen by Israel as Cyrus fulfilling 70 years of dreams. Immediately after Trump took office, he cut off aid to the Palestinian Authority, closed the Palestinian Authority's representative office in Washington, and on Dec. 6, 2017, he announced his decision that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, which is contrary to international law. Subsequently, on May 14, 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv was moved to Jerusalem in a ritualistic ceremony.
Trump's actions for Israel were not limited to these. He also stopped aid to UNRWA and withdrew from UNESCO and the U.N. Human Rights Council due to their decisions damaging Israel's interests. He also stopped using the term "occupied" for the Palestinian territories in official correspondence. He started to ignore the fact that Israel is an occupier of these territories according to international law.
As if all this were not enough, in 2019, he signed a presidential decree declaring the Golan Heights to be Israeli territory, and then, at the beginning of 2020, he and Netanyahu announced to the whole world the so-called "Deal of the Century," a plan that actually paves the way for the elimination of the Palestinian state.
Finally, Trump initiated the Abraham Accords process, whereby first the UAE and Bahrain, then Morocco and Sudan, signed normalization agreements with Israel. It was rumoured that Trump's next step would be to give the green light to the annexation of the West Bank, but Trump's loss in the election on Nov. 3, 2020, left the plan for the West Bank in the air.
Having lost the Jewish votes to former U.S. President Joe Biden in the election, Trump blamed Netanyahu for not mobilizing the Jewish lobby in the U.S. sufficiently after the election. In addition, although Trump called the election rigged and said that Biden's presidency was not legitimate, he could not digest the fact that his old friend, Netanyahu, was among the first to congratulate Biden and said that Netanyahu betrayed him and stabbed him in the back.
Due to this tension between the two, Trump and Netanyahu did not meet during the last election campaign, and in the intervening period, Trump accused Netanyahu of not wanting peace and of cowardice for not intervening in the killing of Iranian military officer Qassem Soleimani. Netanyahu even canceled his attendance at the inauguration ceremony in reaction to Trump's posting a video on his social media account, which was posted by American economist and public policy analyst Jeffrey Sachs just before his re-inauguration as president, in which Netanyahu was severely abused.
From what has been said so far, it can be concluded that Trump and Netanyahu do not actually like each other, especially since Trump does not trust Netanyahu, but both sides tolerate each other due to their positions and interests.
Despite all this, on Feb. 4, Netanyahu became the first foreign head of government to visit the White House during Trump's second term. During this visit, Trump even made a great gesture by pulling Netanyahu's chair and said at the joint press conference that Gaza would be evacuated and rebuilt by the U.S. as the "Riviera of the Middle East," greatly relieving Netanyahu, who was cornered due to human rights violations and genocide in Gaza.
Still, Trump's choosing extremely pro-Israel Cabinet members has been interpreted as Trump's anger toward Netanyahu has passed. Since these people advise Trump, especially in foreign policymaking, it has started to be rumored that Trump will follow a pro-Israel policy in his second term.
However, the first sign that Trump might not be entirely Netanyahu's puppet came during Netanyahu's second visit to the White House on April 8. Netanyahu went to the White House to complain about Türkiye's presence in Syria, but Trump told him to "be reasonable" and he had to return home empty-handed, without the answers he wanted on both Türkiye's presence in Syria and the attack on Iran.
Immediately after this incident, the revelation that National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Defense Minister Pete Hegseth had inadvertently leaked the U.S. attack plans against the Houthis led to talk that these two Cabinet members, who are known to be close to Israel, would be dismissed. Despite these allegations, Trump backed both of them, but the revelation that Waltz had shared some confidential information through the sharing application called Signal forced Trump to decide for himself. Eventually, Trump announced that Waltz was removed from his post and nominated for the post of permanent representative of the U.S. to the U.N.
In fact, while everyone was waiting for things to calm down, news broke out that Waltz was accused of being Israel's man in the White House and manipulating Trump in the interests of Israel. Immediately after Waltz was fired, reports emerged that Trump was furious about this incident and decided to cut off contact with Netanyahu, who was trying to manipulate him. In fact, according to the news in question, it was stated that Trump's decision was conveyed to Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's adviser and minister of strategic affairs, who was in the White House at the time, and that Dermer informed Netanyahu about this issue.
Although these allegations have been denied by Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, and Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Tel Aviv, neither Trump nor Netanyahu has made any statement on this issue so far. Therefore, the general opinion is that the two have indeed fallen out.
The most concrete indicator of the strife is that the U.S. administration has recently pursued a Middle East policy independent of Israel. Despite the fact that the Houthis are still hitting Israel with supersonic missiles, the U.S. signed a cease-fire agreement with them and ensured that the Houthis would not attack their ships. Moreover, despite Israel's objections, the U.S. has continued nuclear negotiations with Iran, and it has been reported in the international media that concrete decisions will be taken in this regard in the near future.
On the other hand, the fact that the U.S. made direct contact with Hamas without informing Israel and made a deal to release Edan Alexander, an Israeli American citizen held by Hamas, is evidence that the bridges between Trump and Netanyahu have been burned.
On top of all these, Trump's announcement that he will not visit Israel as part of his Middle East tour, despite all the insistence, and the news that he will probably make a statement on ending the war in Gaza or recognizing Palestine on the margins of this visit indicate that Trump's Middle East policy will be determined according to the interests of the U.S., independent of Israel's demands.
In addition, Trump's statement that the sanctions against Syria were lifted in his speech in Saudi Arabia, where he was on a Middle East tour, was considered a blow to Netanyahu's power. This is because Israel was trying to discredit the Ahmed al-Shara administration by labelling it as extremist and lobbying the West not to lift the sanctions against Syria. However, Israel's efforts proved fruitless and Trump, after Gaza, Iran and Türkiye, took decisions on Syria that Israel did not wish to see.
Netanyahu made a statement in response to these developments, stating that they would continue their attacks on Gaza and Yemen even without the support of the U.S., and that they may now "have to stop receiving U.S. security aid," showing how much the problem between him and Trump has grown.
While it is impossible for Israel to continue its attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen without the support of the U.S., it is also unlikely that it will be able to continue its series of retaliations against Iran.
Therefore, if Netanyahu does not regain Trump's support, we can foresee that things will not get better for Israel in the region and that it will lose the tacit deterrence it has provided so far. However, no matter how angry Trump is with Netanyahu, it is obvious that he would not want Israel to suffer major damage. For this reason, it is expected that Trump will apply a policy of pressure that will end Netanyahu's power at most, and his relationship with Israel and the Jewish lobby is expected to continue.
However, Netanyahu should not be expected to remain indifferent to this situation and stand idle, and it should never be forgotten that he could force the U.S. into a war on Israel's side by launching a surprise attack on Iran despite Trump.
Let's see who will win this tension between Trump and Netanyahu. Will Trump put an end to Israel's long-standing domination over the U.S. administration, or will Netanyahu bring the Jewish lobby into play and bring Trump down? While Trump's victory seems to be better for the Middle East, Netanyahu's victory will start a process that will lead the whole region to a major disaster.
