As the European Union reels from a U.S. trade assault – 20% tariffs on its exports, denounced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as a “major blow” to the world economy – Brussels is turning eastward. At the first-ever EU-Central Asia summit last week, von der Leyen announced a 12 billion euro ($13.17 billion) investment package to transform the region into a lifeline for Europe’s energy, tech and transport sectors. “We are expanding our cooperation like never before,” she declared.
The timing is no coincidence. For Europe, the tariffs feel like betrayal. After decades of NATO solidarity, the United States has abandoned its largest trading partner to prioritize “America First.” The 12 billion euro package for Central Asia – including 3 billion euros for transport, 2.5 billion euros for minerals and 6.4 billion euros for green energy – is a down payment on a new world order. It signals a willingness to bypass not only Trump’s America but also an overreliance on China and Russia. But is it a partnership of equals, or a 21st-century scramble for resources?
Critical raw materials (CRMs) like lithium, cobalt and rare earth metals are central to this strategy—the building blocks of Europe’s green transition. These minerals power everything from electric vehicles to wind turbines. Yet today, China supplies 98% of the EU’s rare earth elements and around 60% of its CRMs. This dependence threatens Europe’s climate ambitions and geopolitical autonomy.
Enter Central Asia: just on the eve of the summit, Astana announced the discovery of a rare earth deposit totaling 20 million tons – a stash that could catapult Kazakhstan to the world’s third-largest holder of such resources after China and Brazil. For the EU, this is a game-changer.
Central Asia cannot replace China as the EU’s leading minerals supplier. However, it can share some of the EU’s supply, as Europe doesn't have a shortage, but a strategic vulnerability.
“Since 2023, EU engagement with Uzbekistan has reached new levels,” notes Oybek Shaykhov, Secretary-General of the Europe-Uzbekistan Association. “In just the past three years, Uzbekistan has hosted more senior EU officials than in the previous decade combined.”
Von der Leyen, ever the optimist, framed the partnership as transformative: “These raw materials are the lifeblood of the future global economy,” said von der Leyen at the summit. “Some are only interested in exploiting and extracting. Europe’s offer is different.”
But Shaykhov remains pragmatic: “The real test will be whether European industries follow through with the level of long-term investment and commitment needed to build sustainable value chains across the region. In my view, the complexity and scale of this task remain underestimated.”
Central Asia stands at a crossroads. Countries like Uzbekistan—with stable institutions and prime locations along critical transport routes—could emerge as key players in Europe’s supply chain diversification. Still, some critics note that the EU’s vision echoes the resource-hungry approach of the U.S. toward Ukraine’s natural assets. Unlike the Trump administration, however, the EU lacks the power to issue hard ultimatums. So Brussels is betting on soft power and partnership.
“Central Asia can count on Europe,” von der Leyen said in Samarkand. “It is still early to say whether this partnership will truly break from traditional extractive models, but the EU’s political intent appears genuine,” Shaykhov notes.
But minerals alone won’t reshape supply chains. To unlock Central Asia’s potential, Europe must first solve a geopolitical puzzle: How to move these resources westward, neatly sidestepping Russia.
“Central Asia plays a key role in the EU’s strategy to diversify and secure its supply chains. Countries like Uzbekistan – with stable institutions and strategic positioning along vital transport corridors – are well-placed to contribute meaningfully,” says Shaykhov.
Pivotal to the EU’s pivot east is the Middle Corridor, a 6,500-kilometer (310-mile) developing trade route that connects China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Georgia. Brussels has earmarked 3 billion euros to upgrade this route.
The Middle Corridor also aligns with Chinese interests. China, itself facing U.S. tariffs of up to 54%, welcomes a faster route to the lucrative European market. The 15-day transit time undercuts Russia’s Northern Route and skirts tensions in the Red Sea. Even so, Chinese policymakers recognize that Europe could become a major competitor in Central Asia. For now, however, Beijing appears to tolerate Brussels’ “New Silk Road” ambitions, if only because it still benefits Chinese exports.
So what’s the real story behind Europe’s eastward pivot? Central Asia gains leverage, while Europe gains breathing room. Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the summit's host, called the event a "historic chance" for the region long plagued by intra-state rivalries. “The countries of the region are strengthening trust and good neighbourliness among each other, expanding large-scale collaboration and cooperation,” Mirziyoyev noted.
As Eduards Stiprais, the EU’s new Central Asia envoy, steps into this evolving landscape, the challenge will be to turn commitments into concrete results. The focus now shifts to building resilient value chains through long-term investments in infrastructure, technology and skills, ensuring that the Global Gateway translates into shared prosperity.
