The Feb. 23, 2025, elections, which came to the agenda with the dissolution of the Traffic Light coalition, made the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) the first party with 24% of the votes, but forced it to form a coalition. The Christian Union (CDU)-Christian Social Union (CSU) candidate Friedrich Merz, who was tasked with forming the government, chose the "grand coalition" option and formed a coalition government with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The government, which was formed in a short period of 45 days, shifted Germany from a left-liberal line to a right-conservative line. The decisions and attitudes of the government, which officially took office in the past days, will have effects not only in the country but also regionally and globally. Germany is the largest and most influential country in the EU and acts as a locomotive within the union.
The Merz government, the coalition of the Christian Union and Social Democrats, failed to receive the vote of confidence by securing a simple majority in the Federal Assembly that convened on May 6 to elect the prime minister. This was a first in German political history. This process, which began with a loss of prestige for the Merz government, which was understood to have failed to receive the support of even some members of parliament from its own coalition, could only be completed with 325 votes in the second round and Merz became the 10th German Chancellor of Germany (after World War II).
Merz, who was defined as a conservative, used the slogan in the elections as "a Germany we can all be proud of" ("Für ein land, auf das wir wieder stolz sein können"). Along with defense and security, migration and economic issues were the main themes Merz emphasized. Although it is against Türkiye’s full membership in the EU, Merz, which attaches importance to these relations, especially in the context of migration and security, has also sought the votes of Turks in Germany as a party that values family and traditions.
Due to the extraordinary conditions in Germany and national and regional problems, "Compromising for Germany" seems to have been determined as the basic motto of the new government. It is also possible to see the reflections of this consensus in the cabinet and policy areas. Although the distribution of the Cabinet includes an inequality in favor of the CDU (Christian Union 17, SPD 10) and the most important ministries such as Foreign Affairs and Interior were given to the Christian Union, when the coalition agreement and statements are examined, it seems that a consensus was reached in three main areas in particular.
The foreign and security policies that have been designed are the most important examples. For the first time in 60 years, the CDU has taken over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, there are very important foreign policy issues awaiting the new government: The issue of loyalty to the U.S., which has been adopted as an indisputable state policy in Germany, has recently suffered a great blow. With his negative approach toward NATO, which forms a security umbrella for Europe, and his abandonment of Europe to its own fate in the face of its great enemy, Russia, U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have opened perhaps the most problematic and fragile period in German-U.S. relations.
In this context, the Cabinet selection seems to be a political, military and economic response to the tensions with the U.S. The fact that Boris Pistorius from the SPD, who served as minister of defense in the previous government, will retain his place in the new government proves that his approach toward Ukraine will not change. Germany, which has taken a completely pro-Ukraine stance against the “Russian threat,” seems likely to continue to differ with the U.S. on this issue, even though it remains within the U.S. security umbrella.
Traces of a Ukraine policy that is partially independent of the U.S. and in the opposite direction can also be seen in the agreement made for the new coalition. The agreement emphasizes the importance of Ukraine for European security and states that military and political support for the country will continue. It is understood that efforts will be made to reduce military dependency on the U.S., even if the government continues to remain within NATO. The initiative to lift the debt limit for defense spending is directly related to this issue and is an indication of Germany's intention to increase its military capabilities and pursue a more independent foreign/security policy. Germany, which is experiencing a complete dilemma due to Trump's negative approaches based solely on economic interests, has to deal with the problems created by being deprived of U.S. support in foreign policy and military matters in the new period.
On the other hand, it can be expected that the new government will display a more balanced and rational attitude when looking at regional and global issues compared to the previous government. In this context, it can be predicted that the new foreign minister, Johann Wedepuhl, will display a more constructive approach in relations with Türkiye, based on his previous statements. Wedepuhl, who criticized the previous government's negative attitude toward Türkiye on various occasions, thinks that relations with Türkiye, which is a NATO member and an important security partner, should be open to dialogue and based on more rational foundations. This also points to a more pragmatic relationship between the two countries, which can be a great opportunity.
In addition, another of Germany's top priorities is the economy. Economic problems that have grown with the difficulties experienced in the production sector, especially in the automotive and technology sectors, as well as with the competition with China and the challenging developments such as the increase in customs duty rates by the U.S., have turned Germany into a shrinking economy for the last three years. Merz, who frequently touched on the country’s production and unemployment problems during the elections, managed to win the votes of the right-conservative segment by promising to revive the economy. In this context, one of the issues on which the coalition parties agreed is economic growth. Although it is thought that the tax tension with the U.S. can be overcome through negotiations, China is defined in the coalition agreement, due to the tough economic competition, as a significant risk factor and a rival that must be defeated.
Some polls conducted after the elections show that the CDU lost votes during the coalition talks and that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) rose to the first party position. This political atmosphere, shaped by the far-right wind, seems to be reflected in the new government’s migration policies. Indeed, the appointment of Alexander Dobrindt from the CSU as minister of the interior is considered an indicator of this. Dobrindt, who promised a transformation in asylum policies before the elections and is known to have an anti-migration approach, advocates harsh practices, including repatriation and a securitized immigration policy. In addition, before the elections, Merz had supported the bill that would tighten immigration rules, together with the AfD. Although it was rejected, Merz’s stance, which was accused of collaborating with the AfD, can be interpreted as a sign of a restrictive migration policy shaped under the shadow of the far-right. This stance, which clearly differs from the migration policy pursued during Angela Merkel’s term, can also be interpreted as a result of the rhetorical supremacy that the far-right and conservative mentality have gained in German politics.
