The "Heartland Theory," articulated by British geographer Halford Mackinder in the early 20th century, remains a cornerstone of geopolitical thought. It posits that Eurasia’s vast interior – the so-called "Heartland" – holds the ultimate key to global geopolitics. Widely regarded as one of the most influential frameworks in strategic analysis, Mackinder’s thesis illuminates a historical constant: control of this pivotal region has shaped world power dynamics for centuries.
With the emergence of the modern West, the global center shifted externally to the West, resulting in approximately 200 years of Western leadership.
Before discussing the strong global geopolitical position that Türkiye has achieved, I would like to make a brief assessment of continental Europe.
Over the past two decades, continental Europe has gradually lost its weight in global diplomacy. European nations are becoming actors whose influence is either diminished or completely overlooked in major international affairs.
Especially in the last 10 years, it has become evident that, no matter where significant global issues arise, European states no longer occupy a central role in addressing or resolving them.
Without indulging in grand predictions, a review of the key diplomatic developments over the past decade makes this trend abundantly clear.
Take the Syrian Civil War as an example: when the conflict erupted, the world had not yet fully transitioned into a multipolar order. Initially, the U.S. and plenty of European countries formed a coalition. Soon after, only four countries remained prominent on the ground: the U.S., Russia, Türkiye and Iran.
Similarly, during the crisis in Libya – on Africa’s northern front – Türkiye stood alone in support of the legitimate government. The opposing powers included Egypt, Greece, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia.
When conflict reemerged in the Caucasus between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Türkiye once again emerged as one of the four principal countries shaping the peace process, alongside Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.
In the aftermath of the prolonged Syrian Civil War, a revolutionary transformation took place. Following the fall of the Assad regime, the initial coalition of the U.S. and 60 countries – “Friends of Syria” – gave way to a new phase, dominated by Türkiye, Iran, Russia and the U.S. Yet, in the end, Türkiye remained the only active and credible actor. This was underscored by a summit held in Saudi Arabia the other day, where, apart from the host nation and the U.S., only President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was invited. The meeting demonstrated that, in the Near East and Türkiye’s surrounding strategic sphere, few, if any, other nations hold comparable sway.
In the case of the Ukraine-Russia War, while the United States and its European allies under U.S. President Joe Biden formed a large-scale coalition against Russia, Moscow found itself isolated. Yet Türkiye, despite its NATO membership, has skillfully maintained open channels and a balanced diplomatic approach with all parties involved. This impartial stance proved invaluable. One of the most symbolic moments occurred at the 2022 Dolmabahçe talks: after Erdoğan’s speech, both Ukrainian and Russian delegations, despite actively fighting on the battlefield, rose together in applause – an almost mythical moment in modern diplomacy.
Today, in many of Africa’s anticolonial movements, whether Türkiye is directly involved or not, leaders opposing Western colonial influence often echo Erdoğan’s spirit of independence and leadership on the ground.
Two decades ago, Türkiye began to break free of its shell. Despite its NATO membership and EU accession ambitions, Türkiye has deliberately charted a course of strategic independence, asserting its sovereign foreign policy while maintaining critical Western ties.
Western hopes of keeping Türkiye within a dependent, satellite-state framework began to fade as Türkiye strengthened economically, technologically and militarily, often without Western backing. In doing so, Türkiye has emerged as a potential model for development for other underdeveloped nations.
A principal factor behind Türkiye’s rise has been its consistently strong military. But in the last 10 years, something transformative occurred: Türkiye began to equip this powerful army with domestically produced defense technologies. Today, it boasts one of the world’s most advanced fleets of AI-powered drones and aircraft. This fusion of a robust military with cutting-edge indigenous systems has exponentially amplified Türkiye’s diplomatic leverage.
Where key diplomatic meetings were once held in Geneva, Bonn, London or Paris, they are now increasingly convened in Istanbul, Ankara and Antalya.
While many Western nations – excluding the U.S. and Russia – are experiencing a leadership vacuum akin to the Ottoman-era concept of “Kaht-ı Rical” (a dearth of statesmen), Türkiye has found a premium leader in Erdoğan. His diplomatic intelligence and strategic use of Türkiye’s national potential have been central to establishing Türkiye as a new diplomatic axis globally.
Erdoğan has become a figure who inspires confidence in both allies and adversaries. He is known for keeping his word and taking principled stands during crises, no matter the cost. Among Muslim nations and oppressed peoples around the globe, he is seen as a visionary and a beacon of hope; in the West, he commands respect as a powerful and equal interlocutor.
Türkiye, as of today, is not a superpower on the scale of the U.S., China or India. It remains a regional power. Yet, thanks to Erdoğan’s diplomatic vision, Türkiye has become a globally influential actor in international relations. The impact of this leadership – its uniqueness and effectiveness – is undeniable.
