Latest polls paint a surprising picture for the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, the top two presidential hopefuls of Türkiye’s main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), which is set on calling for an early election before the scheduled 2028 vote.
A survey on opposition candidates by the independent firm Betimar has put Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş at least 7% points ahead of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, who has been typically considered the CHP’s primary presidential runner against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in recent years.
Some 28.4% of surveyors opted for Yavaş, while Imamoğlu garnered 21.2% of the votes, Betimar said, which had made the closest prediction for the May 2023 presidential vote that Erdoğan won.
CHP Chair Özgür Özel, meanwhile, lagged behind the pair at 4%. Özel himself has renounced any presidential ambitions, claiming he favored Imamoğlu and Yavaş as potential candidates.
Surveyors also favored Yavaş over Imamoğlu and Özel when asked who they would vote for out of the three.
Encouraged by unprecedented wins in last year’s municipal elections, the CHP slowly built up expectations for an early election in the past months. The high cost of living, which the party squarely blamed on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), drove up the CHP’s ambitious campaign to attract disillusioned voters.
The party will hold a pre-vote among members to determine the presidential candidate in the coming days.
Özel on Tuesday announced the party council would assemble next Monday to discuss the technical details of the said vote, including criteria and a potential candidate list.
Yavaş and Imamoğlu, however, are on opposing sides regarding the process, with Ankara's mayor arguing it’s yet “too soon” to pick a presidential candidate “while there are economic hardships.”
“The candidates should not be exhausting one another and the people should not be occupied with this,” Yavaş said but also rejected the idea of refraining from running in a CHP pre-election.
“I only think it’s too soon for candidacy,” he told reporters on Tuesday.
Imamoğlu, meanwhile, backed the CHP’s pre-election move, calling it a “historic inclination and a democratic revolution.”
Imamoğlu is embroiled in many legal troubles and may face a political ban if convicted.
Last week, he was summoned to testify at Istanbul’s Çağlayan courthouse over his accusations toward an expert witness assigned to cases related to irregularities and corruption in municipalities Imamoğlu has run, including Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) and the Istanbul district of Beylikdüzü he governed before winning the IBB election in 2019.
Özel too dismissed criticism of his party’s move to produce a presidential candidate three years ahead of schedule, claiming the CHP “paid a heavy price by selecting candidates too late in 2014, 2018 and 2023.”
“We have always said a party that wants an early election must be prepared for one in all aspects,” Özel told CHP lawmakers at a parliamentary meeting on Tuesday.
Özel, who held up a picture of Yavaş and Imamoğlu holding hands, concluded the meeting by reciting a Bertolt Brecht poem in German, titled “All of Us or None,” which the party is utilizing as a slogan.
CHP sources speaking to Turkish media this week claimed the pre-election could be held in March once the party council concludes what they called a “clarification meeting.”
One of the top reasons why the party has decided to call for a pre-vote is the “attacks” against the CHP and the wider opposition, according to CHP sources.
The sources also said the CHP candidate would announce the party’s promises.
They acknowledged criticism toward the party’s decision from executive members but claimed there wasn’t "too much opposition veering on rejection."
The party ranks, however, are still concerned over the possibility that Yavaş and Imamoğlu may face off in the presidential election.
Party sources recalled the scene in the picture Özel held earlier, which features the two mayors posing in solidarity outside Çağlayan.
Yavaş too has "recognized the synergy spurred by this image," sources said, adding that Yavaş and Özel were “in constant touch” and that the Ankara mayor would “not take a stance against Türkiye or the CHP.”
No political party has officially announced its presidential candidate. However, on Jan. 14, the AK Party spokesperson said that incumbent Erdoğan's candidacy in the upcoming elections is on their agenda. He stated that if the public wants to see him, Erdoğan may run again.
Erdoğan was elected president in 2023 in his first runoff, cementing his place in Turkish politics. He dominated as prime minister and president for more than two decades, a record for any Turkish politician. His tenure will end in 2028. He is serving his last term as president unless Parliament calls an early election, according to the Constitution.
Another Erdoğan term is possible through a constitutional change that could be put to a referendum. It will need the approval of 360 lawmakers in Parliament. The AK Party and its main ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), fall short of the required number of seats in Parliament.
Similarly, an early election would need the support of 360 lawmakers in the 600-seat Parliament. But the opposition's support for Erdoğan’s candidacy may pave the way for this process.
It is unclear who the AK Party will pick if Erdoğan decides not to run again. He remains the favorite candidate, even for the CHP, whose unlucky streak against the AK Party was partly broken when it defeated some AK Party mayors in the March 31, 2023, vote.
The CHP seeks to boast about defeating the country’s almost invincible leader, while Özel recently said it would be “a healthy democratic process” if Erdoğan runs again and they win against him.
