The upward trajectory of Türkiye-Iraq relations continues despite the persistent crises and conflicts in the Middle East. Recent developments in bilateral ties, particularly over the past two years, indicate notable progress on several challenging issues, including the fight against the PKK terrorist group, the Development Road Project, as well as energy and water-related matters. The positive trend, along with the concrete steps taken, shows the shared interests of both countries and their commitment to high-level diplomacy.
The visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed S. Al Sudani to Türkiye on May 8 marks a significant moment not only in the evolving Iraq-Türkiye relationship but also within the broader regional context. The visit comes ahead of the Arab Summit in Baghdad on May 17 and Iraq’s parliamentary elections scheduled for Nov. 11. Therefore, it plays a vital role in institutionalizing Türkiye-Iraq relations and maintaining the positive momentum in bilateral relations. This momentum also strengthens regional initiatives jointly undertaken by the two countries.
Al Sudani arrived in Ankara on May 8 to attend the Fourth Meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council. During the visit, 11 agreements, previously negotiated by Turkish and Iraqi officials, were signed. These agreements cover a wide range of areas, including migration, disaster management, education, the fight against drugs, law enforcement, the defense industry, and information and communication technologies.
The visit marks the Iraqi prime minister’s third trip to Türkiye in less than three years since the formation of the Iraqi government. Additionally, during Al Sudani’s tenure, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also visited Iraq in April 2024, during which 26 agreements were signed. This highlights the development of high-level diplomacy and demonstrates that bilateral relations remain strong, despite the chaotic regional environment and that the parties are positively shaping the agenda by acting in line with common interests.
Recent developments suggest a growing alignment between Türkiye and Iraq in terms of security policies. The two countries have strengthened coordination in political and security matters, particularly over the last two years. Issues such as security, water and energy have become central to their bilateral engagement, making these relations multilayered and multifaceted. The mutual visits by high-level officials and the establishment of sustainable mechanisms and committees ensure the continued upward momentum in their relationship.
Common interests have led to a positive breakthrough in Türkiye-Iraq relations. In drama, a Deus ex Machina refers to an unexpected power or event that resolves a seemingly unsolvable problem. Until recently, the priorities of Türkiye and Iraq were significantly divergent; Ankara focused on counterterrorism, while Baghdad prioritized the water issue, creating a diplomatic deadlock. However, the Development Road Project has acted as a Deus ex Machina, unlocking progress by aligning both sides around shared interests. This cooperation has, in turn, opened the door for dialogue on other long-standing issues.
Developments such as the designation of the PKK as a banned organization by Iraq in 2024, along with the projects that followed the agreements signed in April 2024, are direct results of the political processes driven by this ambitious project. As a route connecting Iraq’s southern Basra to Europe, the Development Road Project holds the potential for regional prosperity and necessitates close cooperation between Türkiye and Iraq.
Recent developments, such as the reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president, Israel's genocidal actions in Gaza, the decline of Iran's deterrence and the formation of a new government in Syria, have created both new threats and opportunities in the Middle East. The U.S. policy of maximum pressure against Iran raises concerns in Iraq, where Iran has a strong influence. Iraq, therefore, supports the U.S.-Iran negotiations. In Syria, the risk of a Daesh resurgence and the potential spread of Daesh-linked individuals from camps throughout the region pose a significant threat to Iraq.
As two countries potentially affected by regional instability, Türkiye and Iraq share a similar approach to preventive measures. Along with Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, they have taken steps to address regional issues through the Quintet Mechanism, launched in Amman on March 9. This mechanism aims to establish common policies on regional issues such as the fight against Daesh and support for Syria. Moreover, Türkiye-Iraq relations play a crucial role in Iraq’s efforts to improve ties with the new Syrian government. As such, Türkiye stands out as a key player in Iraqi foreign policy. Türkiye's ability to maintain this key role will depend on balancing diplomacy and military power effectively.
Türkiye-Iraq relations are evolving from issue-specific cooperation to a broader strategic alignment. While domestic volatility in Iraq and broader regional instability pose risks to this trajectory, sustained high-level engagement and the institutionalization of shared projects offer a solid foundation for long-term cooperation.
The upcoming elections in Iraq will not only test domestic political stability but also the durability of its emerging strategic partnership with Türkiye. A shift in the political balance could alter Baghdad’s regional approach, particularly its efforts to balance relations between the U.S. and Iran. However, Türkiye is well-positioned to remain a key partner in addressing Iraq’s Syria-related concerns, especially the Daesh threat. Ankara’s ability to balance hard power with diplomatic initiatives will continue to shape Iraq’s stance on both the PKK and broader regional dynamics. If maintained, this cooperation could serve as a model for regional alignment amid systemic uncertainty in the Middle East. Furthermore, the projected withdrawal of the Global Coalition from Iraq by September 2025 may necessitate the recalibration of Iraq’s security architecture through enhanced bilateral cooperation with Türkiye, and could potentially facilitate a more institutionalized engagement of the Quintet Mechanism in Iraq’s security framework.
